Saturday, August 30, 2008

Sarah Palin on Health Care--A Free Market Republican

Republican vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin has very little on her health care policy resume from her short time in office as Alaska's Governor but what she does have fits right in with Senator McCain's strategy to use the market more effectively in bringing down America's health care costs and improving access to the system.

Her health care efforts have focused on two things in Alaska:
  • Eliminating the 1970s era strategy of requiring providers to file Certificate of Need (CON) applications before being able to build more health care facilities.
  • Providing consumers with more information.
On the Certificate of Need issue she recently wrote in an op-ed:

Health care: Do we have too much government or too little? Should we have regulated markets or open markets?

Those are the perennial questions.

And that's what makes the state's proposal to repeal the current Certificate of Need (CON) program so contentious. Yes, there are solid arguments on both sides. But after much consideration, we believe that the program has not accomplished what it set out ultimately to do more than 30 years ago -- lower costs for the consumer. It is time to end Alaska's program in its present form. Doing so will not only reduce the cost of health care, it will also improve the access to health care, allow more competition and improve quality of care for patients.

Certificate of Need programs were required in all states in the mid-1970s by federal mandate. The goal was to make sure that health care facilities matched community need and provided access and quality care, which in turn would help reduce health-care costs. The federal mandate was repealed in 1987 -- 20 years ago! -- along with its federal funding.

The basic assumption in those days was that excess capacity, in the form of overbuilding, directly results in health-care price inflation. However, after more than 30 years of such programs, the National Conference of State Legislatures has found that there is no solid proof that the state-sponsored CON programs have actually controlled health-care costs. In fact, in 2004 the Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice both asserted that these programs actually contribute to rising prices because they inhibit competitive markets.

Many opponents of CON programs have argued that health-care facility development should be left to the economics of each institution, in light of its own market analysis, rather than being subject to political influence...

As I said recently in my State of the State Address to the Legislature, "Under our present Certificate of Need process, costs and needs don't drive health-care choices -- bureaucracy does. Our system is broken and expensive." Eliminating the CON program, with certain exceptions, will allow free-market competition and reduce onerous government regulation.

Governor Palin has also been calling for more price transparency, openness and competition as a solution for rising health care costs in Alaska.

A task force set up by the Governor on health care issues in Alaska recently concluded that consumers needed more information to be able to compare costs.

As a result, Palin introduced the Alaska Health Care Transparency Act to provide consumers with information on quality and cost which would be provided by a new government-run health care information office.

Both of these relatively minor forays into health care policy could hardly be described as heavyweight attempts at health care reform. But both are consistent with the McCain market-based strategy to remake America's health care system.

I expect Governor Palin will have no trouble fitting right in with Senator McCain on the health care issue.

Related posts on the presidential candidates' health care plans:

Comparing John McCain's Health Care Plan to Barack Obama's Health Care Plan--What's the Big Idea Difference?

A Detailed Analysis of Senator John McCain's Health Care Reform Plan

A Detailed Analysis of Barack Obama's Health Care Reform Plan

"US Healthcare on the Edge: A Prescription for Cure"

Jonathan Lorch and Victor Pollak, two physicians with plenty of experience and accomplishments in America's health care system, have suggested the steps they think will go a long way toward making our system work.

I am pleased to post a brief description of their plan and a link to the full proposal.

US Healthcare on the Edge:
A Prescription for Cure

by Jonathan Lorch and Victor Pollak

The US Healthcare system has many problems. At its heart are three that prevent better outcomes, waste vast amounts of money and hinder understanding of optimum cost effective treatment: (1) misaligned risk, (2) ineffectual infrastructure, and (3) minimal leverage with the pharmaceutical industry. All three need be changed simultaneously, or in very rapid succession.

Misaligned risk

The Problem:
For long-term outcomes in chronic disease, that account for 75-80% of costs, the objectives of insurers and employers differ from those of physicians and hospitals. Costing relatively little when first diagnosed, diabetes, hypertension, and vascular disease become increasingly expensive as complications mount. Caregivers try to prevent long-term complications, but payers have no motivation to provide the resources to do so. This misaligned risk represents lost savings from preventable complications. If the savings are only 5% a year this represents $125 billion.

The Solution: A single defined insurance policy
  • Defined minimum benefits, credible, applicable over a lifetime.
  • “Belongs to” the individual and stays irrespective of good times or bad.
  • Competition based only on cost of the policy not its quality.
  • With a single policy, and all covered, insurers will have a single vast risk pool including healthy individuals.
  • Obviates the need for Medicaid and SCHIP .
Infrastructure

The Problem:
A currently balkanized process wastes $60-100 billion on billing, collecting and administration. Briefly, insurers strive to keep from paying claims, so the more complex and difficult the billing process, the more money providers and patients will be unable to collect.

The Solution: A single claims processing and administrative system
  • A uniform medical practice code set and a known set of application programming interfaces.
  • This system will be the start and finish of every claim processed.
  • Payments will be routed directly from payers to the provider’s bank.
  • Claims will be settled electronically and instantly, as by American Express.
  • Elimination of back-office provider employees who try to pry funds from insurers, and of insurer employees whose job it is to deny payments.
  • The cost will be borne through small transaction fees.
The Pharmaceutical Industry

The Problem:
The third core problem is minimal leverage with the Pharmaceutical Industry, which as of 2005 represented 10% or $200 billion a year of the US Healthcare system.

The Solutions: Increase leverage and independently evaluate new medications
  • To bring greater market power to bear, payers and providers should be allowed to organize purchasing organizations.
  • Development of ongoing studies on the optimum utilization of drugs and on whether or not new drugs are better than existing treatments.
  • A modest tax on pharmaceutical industry sales to be used entirely to study the additional value actually provided by new medications and how best new medications can be used. NIH could be charged with this responsibility.
  • Change in, and capping of, the marketing costs of pharmaceuticals, allowing for bringing them to market but excluding direct-to-patient advertising, high honorarium to physician speakers, etc.
This is a summary of an in depth prescription for the US Healthcare system. The full text is available here.

The authors:

Jonathan A. Lorch, MD, FACP
Associate Professor of Clinical Medicine
New York Presbyterian Hospital-Weill Medical College of Cornell University
Director, Medical Informatics. Director, Nocturnal Dialysis, Co-Medical Director
Hemodialysis. The Rogosin Institute, New York, NY
lorchj@mail.rockefeller.edu

Victor E. Pollak, MD, FACP
Emeritus Professor of Internal Medicine, University of Cincinnati
Professor of Clinical Medicine, University of Colorado
Senior Vice-President & Medical Director. MIQS, Inc. Boulder CO
vpollak@miqs.com

Friday, August 29, 2008

McCain-Palin

Who?

Well the self-described maverick surprised everyone this morning.

While many kept saying it would be Romney, I never believed it. First, they don't like each other. Second, a Romney pick would have flown in the face of the McCain health care strategy ( If McCain Picks Romney He Will Never Again Be Able to Criticize Obama's Health Plan).

Governor Palin
would seem to be a conservative Republican who walks her talk. The lady has grit!

But what is puzzling about the pick is that the 72 year-old candidate has been criticizing Senator Obama for his inexperience. Then what does he do? He puts a 44 year-old newcomer, with 18 months experience as Governor of Alaska, a "heart beat" away from being Commander-In-Chief.

Go figure.

One thing is certain. We will break a barrier this time--either an African American President or a woman as Vice-President.

This campaign just gets interestinger and interestinger.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Health Wonk Review is Up

Julie Ferguson hosts the latest edition of Health Wonk Review over at the "Workers' Comp Insider."

She has a great list of recent posts from the world of health blogs suitable for beach reading. Just turn up the brightness on that screen!

What Happened to the Health Care Issue?

An interesting article in today's Chicago Tribune.

Readers of this blog know we've been having a spirited debate recently on the question of just how likely health reform will be in 2009. Brian Klepper and Maggie Mahar have added to this discussion with some interesting posts and comments.

The Trib headline:
Health care no longer primary ailment
Economy, price of gas, war in Iraq have surpassed insurance as top election issue for candidates
The article laments the way health care has once again fallen off the top of the national agenda replaced by the issue d'jour--this time gas prices and the economic slowdown.

Recently I pointed out on this blog that I was not surprised to see health care once again slipping in the polls since the vast majority of people who vote in this country continue to be shielded from the high cost of health care by employers who continue to be willing to pay the ever higher cost.

In my mind, that is what needs to change before we will have the political juice to really tackle this issue.

Recent posts:

The Voters Aren't Upset Enough About Health Care--And Why Should They Be?

"Chastened and More Sober, Harry and Louise Return"

Will the Lobbyists Make Meaningful Health Care Reform Impossible?

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

"Chastened and More Sober, Harry and Louise Return"

Brian Klepper joins us again today on the subject of just how realistic health care reform will be in the coming year.

Chastened and More Sober, Harry and Louise Return
by Brian Klepper

Yesterday Ron Pollack of Families USA led a call with bloggers - unfortunately, I couldn't be on it - to discuss a new health care reform campaign sponsored by 5 prominent organizations: the American Cancer Society's Cancer Action Network (ASC CAN), the American Hospital Association (AHA), the Catholic Health Association (ACHA), Families USA and the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).

The goal of these collaborators is to get the next President and Congress to focus on meaningful health care solutions. Beyond that - and of course all those experienced with the policy-based reform process are aware of this - the motivations and objectives of the participating organizations diverge. To get an idea of the degree of their differences, look at the ASC CAN, Families USA and NFIB sites.

The first three groups are all provider organizations. Naturally, they're concerned that money is evaporating for their services, and they want to make sure they'll get paid for any services they provide.

Families USA is an idealistic consumer advocacy organization that believes the US should provide universal coverage because its the right thing to do. (They tend to pay less attention to the structural problems in health care that have created runaway cost.) While its an admirable perspective, it also willfully ignores the fact that Congress hasn't passed any major social-justice-based laws for more than 40 years, and that as long as special interests continue to be allowed to exchange financial contributions for influence over policy, it is unlikely we will return to policy in the common interest.

It's the fifth organization that's interesting and unexpected. The National Federation of Independent Business is the generally conservative association representating small business. Here they join with past adversaries, though NFIB's mantras - affordable, stable coverage with choice guided by knowledge of price and performance - is at odds with some of their current pals.

The ad itself has a winning earnestness. Go here to see the new one, and here to see the one from the Clinton period. Like the country, now chastened and more sober after its indulgence in patriotic zeal during the early Bush years, Harry and Louise, older and wiser, aren't so cavalier about Congress making decisions without their input. The health care crisis is all around and they need help. The punchline has Louise, with heartfelt concern (against a plaintive musical score), saying, "Whoever the next President is, health care should be at the top of his agenda, bringing everyone to the table, and make it happen!"

It seems so straightforward! When I was working day-to-day on national health care reform people would call to tell me what needs to happen. As it turns out, knowing what needs to be done isn't the hard part. Most everyone inside and outside of health care who's thought about it even a little knows most of those answers.

No the hard part is making it happen within a policy framework that's controlled by money and power. Displacing the status quo isn't easy at all. And as it turns out, its pretty clear that, while each of the organizations at this table dearly want reform, they, like all of us, want it on THEIR terms.

I attended and blogged Family USA's big meeting some months ago in DC. The had a range of terrific speakers, but the politicians among them - Ms. Pelosi included - pretty much told them what they wanted to hear, that health care reform can happen if people like them just stand up for it. Feeling empowered, the audience LOVED that message. It didn't particularly matter that it wasn 't true.

The truth is that unless the nation's most influential power brokers mobilize to make changes in policy, it's not likely to happen. Consumers certainly aren't galvanized around any specific health care reform agenda or project that I'm aware of, so they don't have a significant power base on this issue. The good news is that a range of non-health care Fortune organizations ARE working, quietly but forcefully, on the problem, through the Patient Centered Primary Care Collaborative and other efforts.

More on that soon.

Friday, August 8, 2008

This is What a Real Cost/Quality Decision Looks Like

The UK's National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) has decided in a preliminary ruling that four drugs used for the treatment of advanced kidney cancer are not effective enough and they won't be paid for by the National Health Service.

Now before someone just claims this is what single-payer health care plans do all the time, let me be clear that NICE is an organization that has largely gained the respect of the world health community. Andrew Dillon, NICE's director, participated in a conference on technology evaluation I chaired a few years ago and the domestic audience from business and policy was more than impressed with their work.

These guys are trying to do the right thing and using extraordinary means to do it. They don't make arbitrary and bureaucratic decisions--they follow the science.

But here's the crux of their decision.

NICE concluded that the drugs extended some patients lives but not enough to justify their high price.

Using clinical trial results that were imputed into complex financial models, NICE concluded the drugs cost between about $150,000 and $350,000 for each year of life they gave patients. Britain's standard says that the Health Service shouldn't pay more than about $60,000 for a year of healthy life gained. They call that their "quality adjusted life year" (QALY).

The chief doc at Cancer Research UK, a non-profit, responded that, "These drugs have shown a small but definitive improvement in an illness where there are few alternative treatments."

Two things:
  1. If this was someone in my family, I would expect my U.S. health insurance to pay (today) or I would find the money to get them the drugs.
  2. This is what real cost/quality decisionmaking looks like.
The next time any of us suggest that making better cost/quality decisions is an obvious next step to take we should remember this example of a real cost/quality decision.

Thursday, August 7, 2008

The Voters Aren't Upset Enough About Health Care--And Why Should They Be?

The health care issue has a history of being named by voters as one of the biggest problems we face--until the problem de jour comes along and pushes it off the list. In 2008, that seems to be happening again with the economic downturn, the mortgage mess, and $4 gas surpassing health care as the big issues.

When asked to name the most important financial problem facing families today by the Gallup organization:
  • 29% said energy and gas prices
  • 18% said the high cost of living and inflation
  • 14% said a lack of money and low wages
  • 9% said health care costs
Policy experts can point to the high cost of health care but Joe and Mary Middle-America are still clearly sheltered from the real impact of these costs largely by the employers who still provide so many of us with affordable health care.

True the ranks of the uninsured are growing with the unemployment rate and the number of people getting health insurance from small employers has been on a long decline. But the fact is the vast majority of Americans still get very good health insurance from mid-size and large employers. And, what cost shifting has occurred has been relatively modest.

Last year's Kaiser Family survey of employer-provided health insurance found:
  • Health insurance coverage at larger employers is stable - In 1999, 99% of employers with more than 200 employees offered health insurance--that number was also 99% in 2007.
  • Cost shifting has been only modest - In 2001, workers at larger firms (over 200 employees) contributed 4.4% of the cost of their coverage as a percent of their income--in 2007 they contributed an average of 6.9% of the cost of their coverage as a percent of their income.
  • Consumer-driven plans remain a very small part of the market. More than ten years after MSAs became available, and five years after HSAs were expanded by the MMA, between 3% and 5% of workers are in various forms of these and high-deductible plans.
Most workers are still sheltered from the reality of health care costs and equate health care quality with access to whatever they want.

Conservatives, including John McCain, argue that we need to move away from third-party pay to a health care system that stresses individual responsibility so consumers can better understand the problems of high cost and respond with more efficient choices. Makes sense.

But to get that kind of far-reaching change it will take a groundswell of major support from voters.

Ironically, voters aren't going to be interested in supporting that kind of change if they remain sheltered from the problem.

It's a "catch-22"--conservatives believe we need voters to realize they need to be more sensitive to health care costs but to sensitize them voters have to be willing to let policymakers take their rich benefits away.


Voters sure don't have a lot of incentive right now to give up those still rich employer plans.

Recent post on why health care reform will be very difficult in 2009:
Health Care Reform, the Federal Deficit, and the Bush Tax Cuts--A Very Counter Productive Combination

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Health Wonk Review

It's my turn to host Health Wonk Review--a synopsis of some of the best recent posts from the world of health blogs.

HWR founder Joe Paduda starts things off with a post critical of investment analysts handling of a recent Coventry Health earnings conference call with his assertion that "the analysts blew it." First the analysts helped HMO stocks hit historic lows this year and now seem to be supporting their resurgence. But are they asking the right questions in the first place? In a related post, I pointed out the Coventry stock rallied after the same conference call where Coventry management used the term "sort of" 63 times to explain the company's performance while the analysts gave them almost a free pass.

And you thought you had challenges in your business. Julie Ferguson at Workers Comp Insider reports that in Florida, Georgia, and Louisiana, an employer's right to establish and enforce health and safety policies on private company property has been abridged by recent laws that give employees the right to keep loaded guns in their parked cars on work property. She discusses this issue and the legal challenges put forth by several large employers such as Disney and Georgia-Pacific.

Merrill Goozner weighs in on the headline anthrax story telling us, "The FBI doesn't have a slam dunk case against Bruce Ivins, the bioterror weapons researcher at Ft. Detrick, Maryland who committed suicide last week after becoming the prime suspect in the 2001 anthrax letter-bomb attack that killed five. But once again it appears that all roads lead back to home in this seven-year investigation, including the fact that Ivins co-owned patents on an anthrax vaccine. Merrill uses the latest wrinkle in this ongoing saga as a springboard to a discussion on the impact that the War on Bioterror has had on infectious disease research.

Jason Shafrin always asks great questions and provides even better answers at "Healthcare Economist." Do people value additional income more when they are healthy and can use it things such as travel, dining out with friends, and athletics; or do they value additional income more when they are sick and can use the money for things such as additional health care, home nursing care? He reviews some arguments from a paper by Finkelstein, Luttmer and Notowidigdo in his post, "The Marginal Utility of Consumption and Health."

Roy Poses suggests that, "The current COO of a Florida hospital resigned after questions were raised about financial management of the hospital he previously ran, including allegations of diversion of more than $1 million into his personal accounts. It also turned out that he spent time in the brig for theft in and then received a bad-conduct discharge from the US Navy. This is another case suggesting, given the rising power of managers and executives of health care organizations, there should be some licensing process to ensure they have some relevant knowledge and background, and follow some ethical standards." See the details in his post, "Another "Rising Star" Health Care Executive Implodes."

Maggie Mahar, over at "Health Beat" takes Roy's post another step asking, "Should More Hospital CEOs Be Physicians?"

But over at "Amateur Economists" they're posting on, "Why Doctors Are Not Good Businessmen." This post discusses "the poor business model of a private practice and compares it to the business model of other types of businesses."

David Hamilton, at "BNET Healthcare,"warns us that, "The increasingly widespread dissemination of individual health data is a double-edged sword, offering patients the benefits of more integrated healthcare (the Health 2.0 view) and potentially disadvantaging them as insurers use the information to risk-adjust premiums or to deny coverage altogether" in his post, “Health 2.0″ vs. Health Insurers: The Looming Clash."

But, Brian Klepper gives us reason for optimism as he sees us on the cusp of a "breathtaking" breakthrough in usable health care information for both the patient and the clinician in his post, "From Description To Action: The Future of Health 2.0 Tools" at "The Health Care Blog."

While Jaan Sidorov, at the "Disease Management Care" blog, discusses the limits of HEDIS-based wellness and prevention measures. He suggests the successful HEDIS approach needs to be integrated with activities in employer settings, communities and even the PHR in, "Physician-Focused HEDIS Is Not Enough."

Matthew Holt gives us a comprehensive review of the UK's technology assessment program, NICE, in his post, "NICE job. Cost-effectiveness in the UK." Under Andrew Dillon's leadership, NICE has created an example for all of us to learn from.

According to some, there's a new "problem" looming: the "underinsured." But is there, really? InsureBlog's Henry Stern is skeptical, but takes a look in his post, "Moving the Goal Posts."

Louise at "Colorado Insurance Insider" suggests that the problem of the uninsured could get even worse. "If McCain's plan results in any decrease in employer group plans, we're going to see an increase in the number of people without health insurance, simply because of the underwriting rules that individual health insurance carriers use" in her post, "McCain Health Care And Individual Health Insurance."

What to do about Medicare and its many challenges? Joanne Kenen gives us a summary of the Medicare Conference recently ran in Washington in her post, "REFORM: Medicare versus Cassandra" at the "New Health Dialogue" blog.

At the blog, "Home of the Brave," Annie suggests that emergency departments which experience inpatient boarding may find using the Joint Commission's Leadership Standard and the regulation which demands that the appropriate inpatient standards of care and practice be enforced from the time of admission was ordered to be the key which unlocks effective strategies to address staffing, care and mechanisms of care provision to patients who are boarding "off-service." You can get the details at, Emergency Department Overcrowding Revisited: It’s The Care And Not The Geography.

Lisa Emrich continues to keep a sharp eye on drug pricing. This time she reports on a Senate Joint Economic Committee meeting she attended which examined extraordinary price increases for drugs used in rare-disease small populations in, "Price Gouging in Extremely Vulnerable and Captive Market" as well as "Small Patient Population - Big Drug Prices."

Friday, August 1, 2008

Health Care Reform, the Federal Deficit, and the Bush Tax Cuts--A Very Counter Productive Combination

Readers of this blog have been very fortunate this week to hear from Brian Klepper and Maggie Mahar on the subject of just how realistic is it to expect any kind of meaningful heath care reform in the next year or two.

They have both made excellent points--and both hope real health care reform will happen.

But there is a big bucket of cold water we all have to factor into such a discussion.

While everyone at least hopes health care reform will save the nation lots of money over the long-run it would be unrealistic to believe it won't cost a lot in the short-term.

Obama's health plan will cost at least $100 billion a year from the start--far more than he has estimated.

McCain says his health plan will be not have an upfront cost but it will because passing any kind of reform through a Democratic Congress will require expensive help for those who can't afford the thousands of dollars a year a health plan costs.

But here's the big hurdle:
  • The White House estimates that the 2009 federal budget deficit will hit $482 billion--and that does not include the cost of the Iraq war, any further economic deterioration, and the indirect tax high oil prices are giving us.
  • Federal spending in 2009 will already be the equivalent of 21% of the economy--the largest share since 1993--before any big health plan is passed.
  • The Bush tax cuts expire in 2010 and the cost to extend them is at least $200 billion a year more.
  • Every year the Congress eliminates the hit middle-class families would take from the alternative minimum tax and it will cost about $200 billion a year to eliminate all of it.
  • The Fannie and Freddie bail-out could cost nothing or it could cost $100 billion--no one knows.
  • Total federal debt has skyrocketed during the Bush administration to 40% of GDP (in 2001 Bush said it would shrink to 8% of GDP)--and the interest payments to maintain it have increased with it.
While the projected 2009 deficit is lower than the red ink we saw in the early 80's as a percentage of GDP, it would be the biggest nominal deficit we have ever faced.

McCain wants to extend the Bush tax cuts and cut even more taxes. Obama wants to let the Bush tax cuts expire for only high income folks, leave them in place for everyone else and in addition would cut taxes for seniors, the middle class, and the working poor.

Frankly, I don't see how either of the candidates can keep their tax cut pledges.

So, where does the up-front money for health care reform come from?

The new President and Congress will face an expectation that America's health care problems must be dealt with.

And, we're broke.

Earlier post:
Health Care Reform Will Be a Long Shot in 2009

A revenue neutral health care reform plan:
Watch the Wyden-Bennett "Healthy Americans Act"--It Could Be the Place Health Care Reform Compromise Takes Place in 2009

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Will the Lobbyists Make Meaningful Health Care Reform Impossible?

Maggie Mahar joins us today. She responds to a recent post here by Brian Klepper. Brian argued that health care reform will be a very difficult thing to do in the near term. At the top of Brian's concerns is the the impact lobbying money has on the ability of the Congress to achieve real reform.

While Maggie agrees that special interest money is a big factor, she argues there are other reasons to be more optimistic.

Will the Lobbyists Make Meaningful Health Care Reform Impossible?
by Maggie Mahar

In a post originally published on The Health Care Blog and reprinted here, health care analyst Brian Klepper asks: “Is Meaningful Health Care (Or Any Other Kind Of) Reform Possible?”

His answer: “I’d be surprised. Delighted! But surprised.”

Klepper believes that the lobbyists are just too strong. Always incisive, he pulls no punches: “In a policy-making environment that is so clearly and openly influenced by money,” it’s just not likely that “Congress will be able to achieve health care reforms that are in the public interest.”

I disagree. I believe economic pressures are pushing us toward a political turning point. (If you want to understand what is happening in history or in politics, follow the money.) The Bush administration has been thoroughly discredited. Americans are ready for change. Healthcare reform will not happen tomorrow; it will require a bare-knuckled political fight. But it will happen, and this is why: Although lobbyists are powerful, so are voters. And they realize that we are approaching a flashpoint: middle-class Americans are being priced out of our healthcare system.

But let’s begin with the lobbyists. Klepper asks readers to examine a review of lobbyist spending, which appeared in an April 15th report published by OpenSecrets

The numbers are, indeed, daunting. Last year, health care lobbyists spent nearly a half-billion dollars wooing Congress– “an average of about $832,000 for each Senator and Representative.” Though as Klepper points out, “Of course there’s nothing new here. For decades the health care industry has leveraged its money and influence, shaping policy to its own ends.”

And what are the industry’s “ends?” Growth. Like any business, health care businesses want to grow. Their aim: ever-rising sales and profits.

But as former NEJM editor Marcia Angell has pointed out: from society’s point of view, we do not want to see health care spending continue to spiral faster than GDP. Americans cannot keep up with runaway health care inflation. There is an inherent conflict between the lobbyists’ goals and society’s need to make healthcare affordable.

Meanwhile, the players in the health care industry who are bent on growth are always selling—and selling hard. Yet, too often, their products and services provide no health benefit. “There is broad expert consensus that one-third to one-half of all health care expenditure is waste,” says Klepper. “Talk privately with most health care professionals - physicians, hospital execs, health plan administrators, benefits managers, supply chain execs and there is reasonable agreement” on what is needed.

Put simply, we need to squeeze the waste out of the system. “Such changes could drive tremendous savings for individual, corporate and governmental purchasers,” Klepper writes, “but at significant cost to health care firms and professionals. Revenues and profitability would plummet.”

He then turns to the possibility of finding a solution: “What will it take for Congress to mount serious, public interest efforts that focus on serious issues?”

“As far as I can tell, there are two - and only two - solutions here,” says Klepper. “Both are highly improbable.”

One is for “America's largest corporations, the organizations that drive national policy through lobbying now, to galvanize to preserve the common interest. . . . What's needed is a national business coalition that collaboratively focuses on what's good public policy for the country - what's in our common short- and long-term interest. This is tough.”

Tough indeed. Klepper is suggesting that the very corporations that have persuaded Congress to ignore “the common interest in favor of special interests now” get together to advise Congress on the public good.

His second proposal is, as he acknowledges, equally improbable. “It would require a new Congress, under new leadership, to resolve to rid itself of its lobbying cancer, and to do so in a way that is highly visible and publicized. There would be ferocious opposition from industry. Hence the need for visible, articulate leadership from key political and business leaders.”

Once again, Klepper turns to “business leaders” to lobby for “the public good.”

But this is not their job. Nor is it their area of expertise. This is why we have government. By law, a corporation’s first obligation is to make a profit for its shareholders. It is expected to reach for the highest profit possible. Government is assigned the task of overseeing and, when necessary, regulating businesses when they over-reach, to ensure that their efforts do not interfere with our rights as citizens.

Particularly when we are talking about necessities—such as heat, electricity, or healthcare—government is supposed to represent the interests of customers or patients, pushing back when the corporate “me-over-we, money-over-people” philosophy threatens the rest of us.

Corporate America was not always so obsessed with profits. But sometime in the 1980s, CEO’s became hooked on growth, and for more than two decades, their mantra has not changed. Plenty is never enough.

I have written in the past about how, when it comes to health care, more is not always better: excess capacity in the form of too many hospital beds, too many MRI units, and too many specialists. Over two decades of work done by researchers at Dartmouth shows that in regions of the U.S. where patients receive more aggressive, intensive and expensive care, outcomes are not better. Often they are worse.

One cannot expect the lobbyists for a growth industry to be enthusiastic about containing costs. But this does not mean that reform is impossible.

A Turning Point

I agree with Klepper that, for decades, corporate interests have been shaping public policy. During nearly thirty years of conservative rule—interrupted by eight years of initially liberal, but ultimately centrist government—lobbyists have accumulated more and more power.

But American history is a story of pendulum swings. Today, I believe we have come to a turning point, not unlike the inflection point we reached in 1980 when Ronald Reagan was elected president.

One piece of evidence: the vote, earlier this month, on the Medicare bill, which surprised many observers. On this blog, Bob Laszewski called the landslide House vote, which went against the insurance industry, “the most amazing turn of events I have seen in 20 years of following health care policy in Washington, DC.”

When legislators saw powerful lobbyists representing for-profit insurers lined up on one side, and seniors and the AARP on the other side, they knew who to fear: the seniors.

Voters still have tremendous power. And as we head toward Medicare reform --and eventually toward national health reform—legislators are going to have to weigh the power of the vote against the power of the lobbyists’ dollar.

Voters are tired of being gouged by drug-makers, device-makers, and some health care providers. Taxpayers, who pick up more than half of the nation’s health care bill can no longer afford levitating medical expenses.

Moreover, there is no reason why health care costs need to continue to climb year after year, faster than GDP. As I have written here aging boomers are not pushing prices higher. The median age in the U.S. will rise just three years, to 39, over the next quarter century--- and only then will the aging of America begin to accelerate. (Even then, boomers will age just as they were born, over a period of decades.)

There is nothing inevitable about soaring health care prices. We have models in other developed countries where health care inflation is not nearly the problem that it is here. Indeed, even at home, there are regions where Medicare’s costs are not spiraling. And, as noted, outcomes are just as good, often better.

Klepper is right: money is power. But so are votes. Legislators know that no amount of campaign contributions will save then if voters decide that they are putting corporate interests ahead of their healthcare.

Next year, Congress will once again be forced to revisit the question of reining in Medicare spending. Four years ago, Medicare’s hospital trust fund began to spend more than it takes in. In 11 years, it will no longer be able to meet its full obligations. Medicare needs to become more efficient, which means eliminating the waste.

In the vote earlier this month, legislators made it very clear that they do not want to take an ax to the fees that Medicare pays physicians with an across-the board cut. There are easier ways to put Medicare on a firm financial footing. And I predict that Congress will find some of the money Medicare needs by repealing the two most costly elements of the Medicare Modernization Act of 2003 (MMA). .

First, that law agreed to pay for-profit insurers who agreed to offer Medicare Advantage a bonus of 13 percent to 17 percent over what it cost Medicare to offer the same benefits directly. Since then, complaints that Medicare Advantage is not delivering value for Medicare’s dollars have been mounting, and they’re coming both from seniors and from the Government Accounting Office.. I predict that Advantage insurers are about to lose that windfall. (Indeed, just last week, Bob explained that even UnitedHealth realizes that “the days of higher Medicare Advantage payments are limited..”

Secondly the Medicare Modernization Act specifically prohibits Medicare from using its size and leverage to negotiate for discounts on prescription drugs. The Veterans’ Administration—which is allowed to bargain—pays 50 percent less for ten of the twenty drugs that are most popular among Medicare beneficiaries. My guess is that next year, Congress may well decide to let Medicare begin to use its clout.

It’s worth remembering that the MMA was not a popular bill. Indeed, the bill was pushed through Congress, under the cover of darkness, amid charges that one Congressman was offered a bribe to vote for the bill. (This was later confirmed by the House Ethics Committee).

Presidential candidate John McCain did not vote for the bill—which suggests that whoever wins the White House, the MMA is vulnerable.

If my predictions prove true, and Congress stands up to both insurers and drug-makers, this will, I think, set a precedent for meaningful national healthcare reform. The lobbyists do not own our government.

Maggie Mahar publishes her own blog, "Health Beat."

Monday, July 28, 2008

State High Risk Pools For the Uninsured--Who Would Want To Be In Them?

What do we do with people who are uninsurable because they have a pre-existing medical condition?

That is a particularly important question as both McCain and Obama propose reforming American health care by building on the private health insurance system.

One of the solutions being discussed--by McCain among others--is to use state-based risk pools. Under McCain's plan heavily dependent on an individual platform, people who don't have employer-based coverage and healthy enough to qualify for individual health insurance could get a private mainstream plan and people who do not qualify for a standard individual plan could buy into a state-run high risk pool for the uninsurable.

In today's market, these state-run pools can be lifesavers for those who can't otherwise get coverage. But of 47 million uninsured, only about 200,000 people are in these pools nationwide. Sometimes the pools are prohibitively expensive, sometimes they are full and taking no new members, sometimes their coverage is hardly worth it.

One of the states that proponents point to as doing a good job with their risk pool is Minnesota.

Minnesota does have one of the better pools for those who are uninsurable. It offers a wide range of plans with a maximum cost of 125% of comparable market plans that medically underwrite. A family of four can get an HSA-style plan for about $9,000 a year (parents age 35-39). A couple age-60 can get a $2,000 deductible, 80/20 plan for about $12,500 a year. Pre-existing conditions are excluded for six months if you do not have prior creditable coverage.

If you are uninsurable in Minnesota--and can afford those premiums--you are likely facing some pretty high medical costs to make it worth your while. These plans tend to be anti-selection magnets in our voluntary system.

In 2006, there were about 30,000 enrollees in the Minnesota high risk pool (out of 465,000 uninsured in the state). Minnesota had a total program cost of $236 million that year. Of that, $124 million--more than half the funding--came from state subsidies collected by an assessment on insurer premiums. The per enrollee subsidy coming from state government was $4,265. That family of four had a state subsidy of over $16,000 that was added to the $9,000 premium they paid.

So, how does a state-based risk pool work?

In Minnesota, if you are uninsurable you qualify only for the limited state plans, at a cost that is up to 25% more than in the mainstream market, and the state government has to come up with a subsidy of more than $4,000 per participant to make it work--and it still costs you a lot.

If the federal government were to pass a health care reform bill that required the states to set these pools up, as McCain proposes, wouldn't that just be another unfunded state mandate?

I can't figure out why John McCain wants to go to voters with the unappealing notion that those with pre-existing conditions are going to be shipped off to a risk pool like Minnesota's when we could accomplish something better by putting them in mainstream health plans using proven market-based reinsurance principles and underwriting rules.

If assessing insurers for the cost of high risk consumers, as they do in MN, is a good idea why not do it through the front door and promise those with pre-existing conditions they can get into regular coverage? See also: John McCain's Health Care Plan and the Uninsurable--There Are Better Fixes Than the Ones He's Proposed.

If nothing else, the market ought to tell the McCain health care planners something--out of 465,000 uninsured in Minnesota, only 30,000 are buying the product.

I don't think the voters are going to buy it either.

The Minnesota Risk Pool--Facts and Figures

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Required Reading for Health Care Analysts and Coventry Health's "Sort of" Informative Conference Call

Joe Paduda, writing over at Managed Care Matters, has a post any health plan investor should read.

He laments that the analysts just weren't asking the right questions and weren't tough enough during last week's Coventry Health earnings call.

With my 35 years in the health insurance business, I have to agree with him. He's dead on.

Beyond Joe's comments, I noted that management used the precise term "sort of," as in "we are still sort of really in the cycle that this sort of... it's about sort of forward-looking into the fourth quarter," "sort of coded, billed and reimbursed," "sort of hurt their revenue cycle," "sort of going on last year," "sort of the statistical fluctuation of a severity spike," "sort of where we have the coordinated care networks," and other precise actuarial references using the term "sort of" literally dozens of times (63 by my computer's count of the transcript)--and the analysts just said, "thank you," for all this "sort of" detailed explanation.

"Thank you?" For what? Talk about an easy audience!

No investor should have been surprised by the recent turn in HMO earnings--and that has nothing to do with the notion that there is some kind of underwriting cycle out there. Things are a lot more complicated than that.

Here are the first few paragraphs from Joe's post:
Coventry earnings call - the analysts blew it

I think I've figured out why analysts have been unable to accurately forecast health plan financials - they don't know what questions to ask.

That's the only conclusion I can draw after listening to the latest earnings call from Coventry Health. The mid-tier health plan company is still reeling a bit from last month's announcement that it had been surprised by a sharp increase in medical costs, an increase that evidently had caught management by surprise.

Folks, this is a health plan company - one that claims "We deliver exceptional value every day, driving solutions that help people enjoy optimal health."

One might think that a health plan company makes money by managing medical care for hundreds of thousands of Americans. Near as I can tell, Coventry isn't a health plan, it is a transaction processor that makes money by pricing its insurance far enough above medical costs to administer the plans and make a bit of margin.

And from the questions that were asked, and the ones that weren't, it is pretty obvious Wall Street analysts think Coventry is a transaction processor as well. Out of the twenty or so questions after the management presentation, there was one - yes, one, that got anywhere close to actually inquiring about medical management. That questioner asked what Coventry could do or had done to deliver care to Medicare enrollees through an HMO at lower cost than thru the standard Medicare plan. Coventry Chairman Dale Wolf responded by noting that hospital days per 1000 members among Medicare HMO plans could be in the 900-1300 range, compared to standard Medicare rates of around 3000 days/1000.

That was it. No follow up question as to how they could do that, what the long term implications were, how that affected pricing, what the techniques were that delivered such a great result and could those techniques be used for commercial members.

You can read the rest of his post that includes a pretty good list of the questions that should have been asked.

Recent post on this blog: Underwriting Cycle or Medical Trend Rate Cycle?

Friday, July 25, 2008

If McCain Picks Romney He Will Never Again Be Able to Criticize Obama's Health Plan

Mitt Romney seems to be at the top of the list when it comes to speculation over who John McCain will pick for his vice presidential running mate. I am not sure if that is what John McCain is thinking as much as the Romney people, trying to boost their guy, want us to think.

But if McCain picks Romney, it will make for an interesting health care debate this fall.

The Obama Health Plan is a virtual clone of the Massachusetts health law. Romney signed it and continues to support it--most recently a couple of weeks ago in an enthusiastic Wall Street Journal Op-Ed.

With Romney on the Republican ticket, how would McCain ever be able to criticize Obama's proposal as just another Democratic government-run tax and spend health plan?

Mitt Romney's Health Plan--A Foot in Each Canoe

A Detailed Analysis of Barack Obama's Health Care Reform Plan

An Detailed Analysis of Senator John McCain's Health Care Reform Plan

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

The End of Medicare Private Fee-For-Service--the Questions to Ask the Health Plans During Earnings Season

Now that we know private fee-for-service (PFFS) is dead on January 1, 2011 in all but the most rural markets, how will the health plans who have significant PFFS business respond?

UnitedHealth is the first health plan to report earnings this quarter and I thought they had the right answer. From their earnings call transcript (Ovations CEO commenting):
We have had a strategy of deliberately positioning ourselves in favor of network based Medicare Advantage rather than private fee-for-service over the years, because we think we can unleash more value from Medicare that way and because of what we perceive to be a slow burn risk, if not a risk that is now crystallized, in the new law.

So the direct impact on us is minimal, because only around 7% of our Medicare Advantage membership is in private fee-for-service and all those 100,000 or so members 3/4 live in areas either unaffected by the law or where we already have network based alternatives. [The growth opportunities are great for us] because obviously the end of deeming will mean that perhaps 80% of the private fee-for-service market will now over the next two years have to migrate to a network -based product and that’s something that we’ve been critically positioning ourselves for.

Potentially 1.7 million private fee-for-service members are going to be triggered into shopping and as the largest operator of network based Medicare Advantage...we hope to be able to capitalize on that opportunity.

It is also notable that UnitedHealth sees the entire Medicare Advantage program as a "slow burn risk." Presumably, they mean that it is clear to them that the days of higher Medicare Advantage payments are limited and the only defense is being able to manage the program more efficiently than government-run Medicare.

Analysts worried about the impact of the new Medicare law on PFFS players need to be asking for specific information:
  1. How much of your PFFS business is in rural markets that was not eliminated by the new law?
  2. Of your PFFS business, how much of it is in market concentrations that enable you to develop a Medicare network--likely at least 10,000 members in an SMSA--or where you already have a Medicare network?
  3. What do you intend to do with your PFFS business where you cannot build a network?
  4. How do these changes impact your pro forma going forward?
  5. When Congress finishes the job of equalizing public and private Medicare payments how can you be sure your business model will be viable?
  6. How much lower are your Medicare costs today, including overhead, than the public Medicare program?
Some of the first comments by some PFFS players exuding a confidence there is a plan in place just don't cut it. Either they will have enough members in a market to build a network, then be able to build a network (capital and expertise), or they will have to try to sell off the members to someone who can.

In 30 months about all of the PFFS income stream goes away without some pretty significant capital and labor intensive efforts.

As the UnitedHealth management said, 1.7 million members are on the block.

The days of people arbitraging the Medicare payment system are now clearly numbered.

Analysts need to ask some tough questions about the strategy going forward.

Monday, July 21, 2008

Is Meaningful Health Care (Or Any Other Kind Of) Reform Possible?

Our good friend Brian Klepper joins us after a bit of a summer break. This time he examines the dynamics of health care reform and questions just how optimistic we should be that progress will be made.

Is Meaningful Health Care (Or Any Other Kind Of) Reform Possible?

By Brian Klepper

Those who wait, ever hopefully, for real health reform might want to take a deep breath and take stock of a few realities.

First, think about the fact that when the Democrats retook Congress, they tweaked but did not fundamentally change the lobbying rules that trade money for influence over policy. In fact, most contributors have now adjusted their contributions to favor the current, rather than the past, majority party. As it turns out, Democrats, like Republicans, are only too eager to allow special interests to trump the common interest, so long as the transactions fetch a good price.

Take a long hard look at the chart below, taken from an April 15th report published by OpenSecrets, which tracks the impacts money has on politics and policy, put together by the Center for Responsive Politics. In 2007, the health care industry spent $445 million lobbying Congress, providing 16 percent of the total $2.8 billion spent to sway Congressional actions, more than any other economic sector for two years running.

Read the rest of Brian's post which includes some fascinating data...

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Health Insurance Industry Stupidity—It’s a Rout From Here On Out

Why the health insurance industry allowed itself to be put in the place they were put by the Democrats yesterday is beyond me.

With the Senate voting 70-26, and the House 383-41, to override President Bush’s veto of the bill to erase the 10.6% Medicare physician fee cut and pay for it with changes that will end the Medicare private fee-for-service program in 2011, the health insurance industry’s political stock has never been so low.

Democrats are no longer afraid of the health insurance industry and they know that most Republicans, having to choose between provider payments and HMOs, aren’t going to support the HMOs. Look for Republicans to use that strategy over and over.

This first whack at the private Medicare program is just the beginning of a rout that will take place after the elections when there will be an even bigger Democratic Congressional majority and a president that isn’t going to fall on his sword to protect the health insurance industryMcCain or Obama.

The only real political leverage the health insurance industry had going for it this year was the threat of a Bush veto of any changes to private Medicare.

The smart play would have been to cut the best comprehensive long-term deal they could this year for private Medicare while they had the Bush leverage. Instead the industry chose an all or nothing bet that pitted them against all the provider groups and AARP that, when they lost, only exposed just how little their support really is. It also did them little good not to have much of a policy defense—just why was it that private plans should permanently be paid more than traditional Medicare?

The insurance industry’s blood is in the water.

What in the hell were they thinking?

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

The National Coalition On Benefits' Oppostion to the Wyden-Bennett "Healthy Americans Act"--Maybe They Like It After All?

The National Coalition on Benefits is a group of more than 150 of America's biggest corporations as well as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable.

They wrote a letter to Senators Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Bob Bennett (R-UT), cosponsors of the bipartisan "Healthy Americans Act," telling them that their bill was a non-starter because it dared to mess with ERISA. The Wyden-Bennett bill has 16 bipartisan Senate sponsors and 23 House sponsors.

The Coalition objected to Wyden-Bennett because of its emphasis on the individual health insurance platform over the traditional employer-based system of health insurance:
In summary, we believe that a sensible, consensus approach to health reform should build on our voluntary employer-based health care system and not undermine the essential role of employers in our health care system. Central to this is the current ERISA standard which provides a single, uniform federal framework and makes it possible for employers to offer health benefits to millions of employees, which they highly value and depend on.
Upon reading the letter, I was frankly puzzled that many of America's largest companies, the U.S. Chamber, and the Roundtable would be so against what is also the core principle in the presumptive Republican presidential nominee's health plan. John McCain shares the same basic approach to individual responsibility in health care the Wyden-Bennett bill uses--including the elimination of the employee tax exemption on employer-provided health insurance in favor of individual incentives for coverage.

Apparently, things are not all that happy over at the National Coalition on Benefits because a significant number of its corporate members were more than surprised to find out they were against the Wyden-Bennett Health Plan when the letter came out. I am hearing there has been at least one conference call between leadership and some unhappy companies who found their name on that letter.

That the letter could also be interpreted as a denunciation of the core individual responsibility section of the McCain Health Plan and supportive of the Obama approach, that would build on the existing employer-based system, didn't help things. Xerox also chairs the coalition and the Xerox CEO has been a strong supporter first of Senator Clinton and now Senator Obama.

ERISA may well be the most successful thing we have in our not so successful health care financing system. The vast majority of employers have been incredibly responsible in providing almost 200 million people valued health insurance despite all the challenges they face in doing so.

None of the Coalition members want to see ERISA eroded--just as the mission statement of the National Coalition on Benefits asserts. But I also expect that what most of those Coalition members meant by that is that they do not want to see ERISA changed in the context of the current health care financing system.

ERISA was passed by the Congress and signed into law in 1974 by President Gerald Ford. It is 1974 health care thinking. It is at the center of a system that is not working.

These big companies know that and, while they understandably are not about to give up the protections they have under ERISA in the current system, the notion that they could never support building an entirely new system on a different foundation is hardly the same thing. I can't believe two of its members in particular--Chrysler and GM--would disagree with that statement.

To fix the American health care financing system we have will require lots of new thinking. The kind of thinking offered by John McCain and the Wyden-Bennett bill, among many other ideas liberal and conservative, need to be part of the mix.

While the McCain Health Plan and the Wyden-Bennett Health Plan are similar in that they would both build on a system of individual responsibility by moving away from America's traditional reliance on the employer-based system, the two plans are very different in other critical areas. Wyden-Bennett goes well past the McCain Health Plan in assuring virtually universal access to health insurance. In fact, one could see Wyden-Bennett as a hybrid of both the McCain and Obama health plans because it couples the individual responsibility concepts conservatives like (and the National Coalition on Benefits objects to) with the liberal notion that we need to get everyone covered sooner rather than later.

For America's largest corporations to enter the debate at this early stage and demand that the Wyden-Bennett bill--and the McCain Health Plan by not so subtle inference--come off the table because they would build a health care system on a platform different than the one devised in 1974 was outrageous on the face of it.

It is hopeful to hear that this might not be where corporate America stands after all.

Earlier posts:

Watch the Wyden-Bennett "Healthy Americans Act"--It Could Be the Place Health Care Reform Compromise Takes Place in 2009

So I Guess the HMOs, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Business Round Table, and Over 150 Big Corporations Are Opposed to McCain's Health Plan?

Monday, July 14, 2008

Underwriting Cycle or Medical Trend Rate Cycle?

Analysts trying to predict the future of the health plan business who are looking for an underwriting cycle will miss the real turns in the market.

Recent health plan earnings issues
have once again raised the question, do we still have an underwriting cycle, and are we entering one?

In my mind, anyone trying to understand the profitability of the health plan business who concentrates on whether or not there is an underwriting cycle underway misses the larger picture.

In the modern health plan era—a time of unprecedented consolidation, financial controls, focused capacity, and prospective provider contracts—I don’t see as much an underwriting cycle as I do a medical trend cycle.

The chart above details the increases in health insurance premiums compared to worker earnings and overall inflation and comes from the Kaiser Family Foundation Survey of Employer-Sponsored Health Benefit Plans from 1988 to 2007.

To me, the most recent 15 years of this 20-year view of health insurance premium increases demonstrates more a health care cost trend cycle than an underwriting cycle.

In the 1970s and 1980s, we clearly had underwriting cycles. (I have the scars to prove it!). But that era was far different from the current one. The health insurance business had a relatively low barrier to enter and lots of marginal players did--often fueled by readily available underwriting capacity from life insurance companies looking to diversify and excess reinsurance capacity--often from offshore. A TPA could quickly enter the business backed by lots of reinsurance capacity and distort local markets in both the small and large case market, for example. That sort of thing is far less common now with the health reinsurance capacity players more often being large and more sophisticated domestic players.

Today we have a consolidated health insurance business dominated by the "adults." While they make mistakes they do not intentionally go on business buying sprees.

I recently attended a Blues sales conference. Often, we hear that there are local non-profit Blues plans out there buying business. I have yet to find one. What I heard at that conference is that this market is just like the markets of recent years--there is always someone who will bid a lower price but that level of competition has always been there. If there is a change today it is that there are so many specialty vendors--disease management, PBM, wellness, trying to pick-off parts of a program.

Saying someone is out there buying business has become too common an excuse for publicly traded plans that would like to deflect attention away from internal problems of their own whether they be customer service or pricing mistakes. I'd like to see some of these "victims" name some names.

One big plan in particular has been claiming their business retention problem can be blamed on the underwriting cycle but that they are so disciplined they refuse to chase lower rates when in fact it is that their service has gone to the dogs and they are creating their own issues business retention issues.

Are there still capacity issues impacting pricing? Yes. But to nowhere near the level we saw them 15 years ago.

The health insurance trend cycle has a lot more to do with whether payers and providers are in equilibrium—whether both sides are getting what they need to make their profit goals—than it does the vagaries of health plan pricing.

Looking back to the 1990s, health care trend fell to near zero not because the health insurance industry figured out how to fundamentally manage health care but because health plans were able to get the upper hand on providers. You might recall physician fee schedules as low as 75% of the Medicare schedule in the late 1990s.

Providers pushed into the corner, reacted. We had the patients’ rights rebellion that might have been better termed the provider rights rebellion. Doctors and hospitals pushed back, employers didn’t back the health plans up, health plans backed down, the lid came off, and medical trend skyrocketed to 13.9% in 2003 as the providers began to catch-up for years of underpayments.

Once things began to build in the providers favor toward equilibrium between payers and providers (beginning in 2003) the medical trend rate began to decelerate. As trend decelerated, profitability was a lot easier for the health plans as they benefited from a trend windfall that covered up a lot of operational “warts.”

Now that we have hit a health care trend bottom, health plan earnings growth has slowed (or even reversed) and the operational warts—the usually small things that get missed when profits are growing at a great clip—begin to show themselves.

It has been a combination of these relatively minor things that Wall Street overreacted to in recent months as health plan stock prices fell on revised earnings guidance. Wall Street’s problem is that it became addicted to the notion that health plans could always report 15% growth and 15% earnings gains.

In terms of real growth, the commercial market has been flat for years.

But the 2003-2007 period was unique. Even though the commercial market was flat, the privatization of Medicare created an enormous growth engine in its place. Now, the low hanging fruit from that new market is gone and Medicare growth looks to be normalizing.

With last week's Senate vote killing private fee-for-service plans by 2011, it is also clear that the tide has shifted in Washington for private Medicare. The next few years will undoubtedly see the payments between private and public Medicare equalized.

During the 2003-2007 period, earnings growth was robust as health care trend decelerated resulting in the extra windfall earnings as plans regularly sold renewal rates closer to the prior year’s trend rate than the prospective trend rate. In addition, the plans benefited from attractive margins on the new Medicare opportunities.

So are we now entering a new underwriting cycle where health plan earnings suffer because of chronic self-imposed health plan underpricing?

No. Throughout my market travels I find no evidence that health plans are deliberately, or even unintentionally, underpricing one another on a consistent basis to gain market share. Such claims from health plan executives lately trying to explain their own earnings problems just don’t pan out.

We are at the end of one phase in the medical cost trend cycle, as the deceleration ends, and entering another phase, as trend is in the early stages of accelerating again. When this happens, health plans face an earnings head wind instead of the nice tail wind they benefited from in the 2003-2007 period.

Analysts trying to predict the future looking for an underwriting cycle that doesn't exist will miss the real turns in the market.

Health care trend just can’t go any lower given the current environment. In the wake of providers getting their catch-up pricing, starting in 2003, and needing progressively less in subsequent years as they completed the catch-up, we had a four-year health care trend “soft landing,” or trend deceleration, that ended in 2007.

Now, the pressure on health care trend has at least a slight upward bias driven this year by a bigger than typical flu season and an uptick in catastrophic claims largely driven in part by more claims for things like serious infections and premature infants.

For medical cost trend to take off in a big way, two are things necessary—higher inflation pressuring providers and/or provider cost shifting driven by government underpayments—haven’t asserted themselves, at least not yet.

People who wonder if there is still any such thing as the underwriting cycle are asking the wrong question.

For at least the last 15 years we haven’t had so much an underwriting cycle, we’ve more had a medical cost trend cycle.

An underwriting cycle is when the health insurance industry cuts its own throat with self-imposed under pricing. In this consolidated and more sophisticated financial environment for the business, little if any of this has gone on—at lease intentionally.

The medical cost underwriting cycle we are now living with has more to do with whether or not payers and providers are in equilibrium—each getting what they need to get to make their own internal profit objectives.

Today, we are as close to that uneasy balance or equilibrium between payers and providers as we ever are. But after four years of trend deceleration and inflation heating up and government looking to make cuts to the entitlement programs, that equilibrium isn’t likely to last long.

We just hit the bottom after coming down the trend curve. The soft landing phase we’ve been going through since 2003 has been the good side—maybe the best period in the history of the health insurance business.

The tail wind is gone and the headwind is growing!

Video of a discussion I had last week with Wall Street analysts discussing the current health plan environment: "Wall Street Comes to Washington"

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