This paper reviews existing literature in search of a more clear understanding of U.S. health care costs, the drivers, and the trends.
It is an encyclopedia of the research on U.S health care costs and required reading for any health policy wonk!
I found the following notable:
- Technology is the key driver in health care spending accounting for an estimated 38% to 65% of spending growth.
- "Obesity is a significant factor driving health spending, accounting for an estimated 12% of the growth in recent years." However, any gains from reducing obesity would be concentrated in the short and intermediate period "because some of the savings will be offset by increased longevity and the cost of disease that are most prevalent during old age." The irony is that obese people die sooner thereby avoiding the high medical costs associated with living longer.
- If we insure more people our health care system will cost more not less. "The increase in the percentage of people with health insurance accounted for approximately 10% to 13% of the historical growth in spending." The uninsured has not contributed to the recent growth in health spending in the aggregate and will not be a driver in the future unless we find a way to insure more people.
- Aging will not be a major factor in driving health care spending, and will not become one, despite aging baby boomers.
- Medical malpractice is not a major driver of spending trends. Medmal does contribute to health spending at any moment in time, but is not a large factor nor a significant factor in overall growth of health care spending.
- "Productivity gains in the health care sector have probably been lower than in other industries."
- U.S. health care cost increases continue to outstrip those in other industrialized nations by a large margin. Excess health care growth in the OECD nations was 0.6% between 1985 and 2002 compared to 2% in the U.S. for that period.
- When compared to the health systems of other industrialized nations, "prices, efficiency, and insurance administration are the most important differences."
- Drug prices are 70% higher in the U.S., physician compensation is 6.6 times per capita GDP for specialists and 4.2 times for primary care compared to 4 and 3.2 in OECD nations, the U.S spends 54% more for the top five inpatient medical devices, and the U.S. spends six times more for administration than the OECD nations.
- "Overall our understanding of high and rising costs is fairly solid. Our most pressing needs are not as much on the research side as on the development side, that is, all of the technical work needed to pursue many of the reforms..."
Are these the "inconvenient truths" in health care reform?
The data would seem to say they are.
So does this mean we should back off on tackling obesity, forget medical malpractice reform, and scrap plans to reduce the uninsured?
No. I'd respond it's fair to say that is not what the author has in mind.
There is a moral imperative to deal with the uninsured. Being obese may save the system some money in the long-term because the person dies a lot earlier--hardly a desirable policy objective. That obese person still costs us a lot more in the near term and typically suffers from chronic disease in the meantime. Our medical liability system needs reform if only to reduce the rate of medial errors and the human toll those take.
But when it comes to health care costs, the real target needs to be productivity--or said another way cost containment.
One finding from this report really struck me: "If the efficiency of the delivery of services could by increased by 20% over 10 years, this would roughly close the gap between health care spending and GDP over that period." The bottom line is that if we want to contain our health care costs we need to find productivity improvement in things like technology use, treatment patterns, and administrative overhead.
Today, most health care reform plans focus on things like expanding the number of the insured and wellness initiatives. Those are good objectives.
But covering more people will cost more not less. Improvements in lifestyle--particularly obesity--can help.
But we cannot afford to stop there. Literally.
The big-ticket play is in productivity--the more discriminate use of medical technology, consistently practicing outcomes-based medicine, and reductions in system overhead particularly in the insurance system.
The problem with the health care productivity issues is that you have to step on some very powerful toes amongst the stakeholders to make any big gains--it's a lot easier to talk about insuring everyone and promoting wellness.
If we only increase access and don't hit the health care productivity issues head-on we will simply craft a system we will never be able to sustain.