Why The Affordable Care Act Isn't 'Here to Stay'­­­­--In One Picture

Why is Obamacare still so unpopular? Why aren’t the working class and middle-class signing up for it? Why is the Obamacare population sicker and causing so many big rate increases a year earlier than expected? Is Obamacare financially sustainable in its present form? Is it politically sustainable as it is?

Here is one picture that tells you just about everything you need to know to understand where Obamacare stands--politically and financially.

See my post at Forbes

The King V. Burwell Decision

First, as any of us who know the market can appreciate, the Court just saved the Republicans from themselves. They were in no way ready to avoid the crisis that would have engulfed the individual market––half of those people on the exchange who would have lost their subsidies and the other half off-exchange that would have seen 30% to 50% rate increases––on top of the big increases already announced––without a quick fix.

Does this mean that Obamacare has cleared its last major hurdle?

Not a chance.

Obamacare has only enrolled about 40% of the subsidy eligible market in two years worth of open enrollments. That level of consumer support does not make Obamacare either financially sustainable or politically sustainable. The surveys say the 40% who have enrolled like their plans. Of course they do, they are the poorest with the biggest subsidies and the lowest deductibles. The working and middle-class have most often not signed up for Obamacare because it costs too much and delivers too little.

That Obamacare is not financially sustainable is evidenced by the first wave of big 2016 rate increases by so many large market share insurers. The next wave of rate increases a year from now will also be large and will be in the middle of the 2016 election.

These rate increases will further undermine the political sustainability of the law that has been reflected in five years of polling.

The attempt to scuttle the law through the Supreme Court was ill conceived and Republicans are very lucky it did not happen.

Now Obamacare has to stand on its own going into the 2016 elections and the growing evidence is that won't be any easier.

The Republican Proposals to Extend the Obamacare Subsidies If the Supreme Court Ends Them Would Create a Huge Market Mess

While both the House and Senate plans would create a means for people to continue to be covered in the wake of any Supreme Court finding that ended the subsidies in the federally run states, what we so far know about these proposals is clearly unworkable in the market and would lead to very big and unfortunate unintended consequences.

See my post at Forbes

Why Are the Proposed 2016 Obamacare Rate Increases So Large?

Why The Big Obamacare Rate Increases Have Begun a Year Early?

One state after another is reporting big Obamacare rate increases––particularly from many high market share health insurers who have the best claim data.

Where are the rates going up and by how much?

Will regulators cut these rate increases back as they often did last year?

What is causing this a full year before the insurance company "3Rs" claim and risk corridor support payments are set to go away?

Are carriers just being conservative worried about the upcoming Supreme Court decision?

I tried to answer these questions and more in my latest post at Forbes.

The Eye Popping 2016 Obamacare Rate Increases Are Out

The Big Rate Increases Are Coming a Year Early

The Obama administration has posted the 2016 rate increases in excess of 10% that the Obamacare health plans are requesting.

There are a lot of them.

All of the federally run states have been posted and some for the state exchanges as well. Both California and New York do not have their rates on this site yet.

Some will quickly argue that many of these rate increases are subject to regulatory approval and can be rolled back. That's right. But this year the health plans have hard claim data to show the regulators and a 35% rate increase is hardly going to be rolled back to 5%.

Big rate increases like this are driven by a lot of claims experience––a lot of really lousy claim experience.

You will also notice that this list most often includes the big market share players, such as the Blues plans, in each of these states. These are the players with the best data.

That these big rate increases are coming a year before the "3Rs" reinsurance program is to end, that was supposed to subsidize the health plan's high claims experience, is not good news.

You can access the administration's website and look at all of them by state here.

To quickly see all of the 10%+ rate increases in a particular state just click on the state and enter a date range of 01/01/2016 to 01/01/2016. Leave the company field blank.

If you leave the dates blank, you can see the carriers' rate submission history since 2013. It's interesting to see what a particular carrier increased rates at the time of Obamacare's original launch and what they have layered on to costs since.

If you click on the company name on the left side, you will see a brief description of their justification for the rates.

For example, Blue Cross of Texas commented that it covered 730,833 individuals in 2014 with premium of $2.1 billion and claims totaling $2.5 billion––for a medical loss ratio of 119%. The plan further commented that, after the "3Rs" reinsurance adjustments, they lost 17% to 20% of premium in 2014––that would be more than $400 million. And, they are only asking for a 20% rate increase.