Friday, October 31, 2014

Health Insurers "Expect at Least 20% Growth" From 2015 Enrollment

That was the lead in a Reuters story this morning saying, "health plans expect at least 20% growth in customers and in some states anticipate more than a doubling in sign-ups" from the 2015 Obamacare open-enrollment.

Well they better do a hell of a lot better than that!

The CBO has estimated that 13 million people will ultimately be covered in the Obamacare insurance exchanges in 2015.

The administration recently announced they had 7.3 million covered as of mid-August.

Actually, I expect they will have closer to 6.5 million at year-end based upon the reports of monthly attrition I have had from carriers.

7.3 million or 6.5 million, the administration has to about double the current enrollment to stay on track toward getting a sustainable pool by the time the Obamacare "3Rs" insurance company reinsurance provisions expire at the end of 2016––a sustainable pool is typically considered to be about three-quarters of an eligible group.

The Reuters article goes on to talk about a number of very small insurers, some the new co-ops, that got little in the way of enrollment in 2014 and have now cut their rates in order to gain market share––not afraid to so because of the reinsurance provisions that absorb most losses. Reuters says these plans are optimistic that they could double their customer base. Well twice nothing is still very little.

Carriers increasing their Obamacare enrollment by 20%?

That is about a fifth of what they need in 2015 to get this thing to "clear the tower."

Reporters have never been very good at math.
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